Your Manhattan Beach homes out-earned the Sora home from June to October: Bayview ran $2,077 ADR at 87.6% occupancy against Sora's $1,689 at 77.5%. From September on it flips. Sora holds $1,740 while Bayview drops to $1,534, December on the books reads $3,048 vs $2,145, and Thanksgiving week is 52.5% booked against a 5-bedroom market already 83 to 95% full. The difference is settings, not demand.
Lumina gave Pacer expert access to its PriceLabs account on November 4, 2026, and shared the bookings report for the Manhattan Beach home run under the Sora account. We read every reservation since April 2024, the PriceLabs settings on each Manhattan Beach listing, the Sora listing's settings and calendar, and PriceLabs' 5-bedroom Manhattan Beach comp set of 25 homes. Manhattan Beach is 73.1% of trailing-year rent, so that is where this audit looks hardest.
PriceLabs read, Sora comparison, market comp set. This report.
Reply when you want to get going and we send the contract
Guesty and Key Data access, full listing audit, event-date rates, forward strategy
Summer 2026 was a rate story market-wide: the World Cup window lifted 5-bedroom ADR to $1,876 in June and $1,633 in July against $1,122 and $1,201 the year before. That tide is gone. The market's November book is behind last year's pace and December sits at 36% booked, so the next six months are about holding rate on the nights that are already in demand (Thanksgiving, Christmas, the LA event calendar) rather than riding a wave.
Market = PriceLabs comp set "5BR Manhattan Beach California", 25 Airbnb listings, read through the Sora listing's Neighborhood Data on Nov 4, 2026. Market monthly history: Nov 2024 to Oct 2026.
Available nights grew 46.5% as the active roster went from 7.9 to 11.6 listings, so revenue growth is mostly inventory and RevPAR is the honest read. Year to date through Nov 4: RevPAR $662 vs $557 (+18.9%), occupancy 73.3% vs 77.7% (-4.4 pts).
| Manhattan Beach listing | Nights | Rent | ADR | ADR vs LY | Occupancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayview (5 BR) | 307 | $544K | $1,773 | +27.6% | 84% |
| Manhattan Ave (4 BR) | 301 | $461K | $1,533 | +56.3% | 82% |
| Alma Ave (5 BR) | 305 | $461K | $1,512 | live Sep 2025 | 84% |
| Homer (3 BR) | 298 | $294K | $987 | +17.5% | 82% |
| Moonstone St (2 BR) | 263 | $176K | $668 | live Mar 2025 | 72% |
All-listings view, not same-store: the roster grew from 10 to 15 active listings over the year. Source: PriceLabs Portfolio Analytics and Bookings Report, Guesty adjusted rental income, stay dates Nov 2025 to Oct 2026.
| Window | Bayview (5 BR) | Alma Ave (5 BR) | Sora home (5 BR) | Market 5 BR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun to Oct 2026 ADR | $2,077 | $1,905 | $1,689 | $1,446 |
| Jun to Oct 2026 occupancy | 87.6% | 84.3% | 77.5% | 77.4% |
| Sep to Oct 2026 ADR | $1,534 | $1,351 | $1,740 | $1,193 |
| November 2026 on the books | 16 nights at $1,825 | 23 nights at $1,508 | 23 nights at $2,179 | 48% booked |
| December 2026 on the books | 17 nights at $2,145 | 19 nights at $1,783 | 8 nights at $3,048 | 36% booked |
| Booked beyond March 2027 | 6 nights | 0 nights | 21 nights incl. 15 for July 2028 |
Same market, same bedroom count, same PriceLabs base price within 5% ($2,379 vs $2,500). The Sora home does not have better demand; its advertised rate moves with the booking window and yours does not. Its partner has 27 Los Angeles event dates on the calendar (set as $2,900 to $4,000 price floors, which is the wrong tool for the right dates), an aggressive occupancy ladder that only steps the rate down inside 15 days, PriceLabs' far-out premium, a 2-night minimum, 10 hand-placed date overrides and $5,995 fixed prices on Thanksgiving and Christmas. Alma Ave carries the same 27 dates; the other four homes have none. Pacer keeps the dates and drops the floors: a higher advertised rate on those ranges that still moves with the booking window.
Sources: PriceLabs Bookings Report (Lumina, booked Apr 2024 to Nov 4 2026, stay-night allocated), Sora Bookings Report CSV (Jon's download, Nov 4 2026), PriceLabs Neighborhood Data. Sora listing live since Jun 12, 2026. Market Sep to Oct ADR is the mean of the two monthly values ($1,152, $1,234).
| Window, 5 Manhattan Beach homes | Booked now | ADR now | Final LY | ADR LY | Sora home |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving, Nov 22 to 29 (40 nights) | 21 nights (52.5%) | $2,127 | 26 nights (65%) | $1,727 | 8 of 8 nights at $2,754 |
| Christmas, Dec 20 to Jan 2 (70 nights) | 47 nights (67.1%) | $2,027 | 62 nights (88.6%) | $1,433 | 3 nights at $5,105 |
The 5-bedroom market is already 83 to 95% booked for Nov 24 to 27. Rate is up on the nights you have sold, which is right. The gap is the 19 Thanksgiving nights and 23 Christmas nights still open across the five homes, priced by the default algorithm with nothing telling it a holiday is coming, while the Sora home sits at $5,995 fixed. Pricing those nights to the window this week, high now and stepped down only if they are still open inside the last two weeks, is the single fastest fix in this audit.
Lumina occupancy is portfolio-wide (PriceLabs stay-date view); the holiday rows are the five live Manhattan Beach homes from the Bookings Report. Market from PriceLabs Neighborhood Data, 25-listing 5 BR comp set, Nov 4 2026.
Stays entirely on Friday and Saturday nights earned $1,376 vs $711 for stays entirely Monday to Thursday, a 94% premium, with weekend occupancy at 76% against 60% midweek.
Alma Ave already carries the same 27 Los Angeles event dates the Sora home uses. The dates are right. They are set as $2,900 to $4,000 floors, which is the wrong tool; Pacer carries the dates as a higher advertised rate that moves with the window.
Base prices on the 5-bedroom homes ($2,379) sit within 5% of the Sora base ($2,500).
No weekly or monthly discounts leaking rate into long stays, on any Manhattan Beach listing or on the Sora home.
The structure is sound. What is missing is the booking-window layer: the advertised rate should open high when an event is 10 months out and step down on its own schedule when a night is still open 10 days out. Not a floor that stops the rate from falling, a plan for when and how far it moves. That layer is where the Sora home wins from September on.
Weekend premium: Manhattan Beach short stays under 7 nights, check-in Nov 2025 to Oct 2026, PriceLabs Bookings Report. Day-of-week occupancy: PriceLabs stay-date trends, 2026 year to date, all listings.
| PriceLabs setting | Lumina, 5 Manhattan Beach listings | Sora home |
|---|---|---|
| Event dates on the calendar | 1 of 5 (Alma Ave, 27 dates, set as floors) | 27 LA event dates, set as $2,900 to $4,000 floors |
| Occupancy-based adjustment (booking-window ladder) | 0 of 5 (group default, steps to 0.85x inside 15 days) | On, aggressive (steps to 0.70x inside 15 days) |
| Far-out premium | 0 of 5 | On, PriceLabs recommended |
| Last-minute logic | 0 of 5 | On, PriceLabs recommended |
| Minimum stay | 3 nights (Bayview, Manhattan Ave), 2 (Alma Ave, Homer) | 2 nights |
| Hand-placed date overrides | PriceLabs flags "review min-stay" on Bayview and Alma Ave | 10, incl. $5,995 on Thanksgiving and Christmas |
| Maximum price | Not set on any listing | Not set |
Nights booked 0 to 1 day out realized $596 vs $1,031 at 14 to 30 days (42.2% lower); 35.3% of stays book inside a week. Rate should come down as the window closes, on a schedule: hold until the last two weeks, then step down deliberately. Today it slides because nothing decides when.
Manhattan Beach has 41 nights booked for January to March 2027 and 7 for summer 2027. The Sora home holds 15 nights for July 2028 at $4,649 ($69,728), booked in August 2026. The Olympics are not on your calendar at all.
| Listing | Min stay | Short stays, trailing year | 1 to 2 night stays | Median lead time | Short-stay ADR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayview (5 BR) | 3 nights | 65 | 25 | 23 days | $1,817 |
| Manhattan Ave (4 BR) | 3 nights | 66 | 24 | 30 days | $1,543 |
| Alma Ave (5 BR) | 2 nights | 93 | 38 | 14 days | $1,514 |
| Homer (3 BR) | 2 nights | 85 | 42 | 12 days | $988 |
| Moonstone St (2 BR) | 2 nights | 71 | 22 | 21 days | $670 |
| Sora home (5 BR), Jun to Nov 2026 | 2 nights | 40 | 6 | 14 days | $2,151 |
Alma Ave and Bayview are both 5-bedroom homes in the same PriceLabs group at the same $2,379 base. Alma Ave, at a 2-night minimum, took 93 short stays; Bayview, at 3, took 65. That is 28 more bookings (43% more) from one setting. Bayview's year only held because 2 stays of 28+ nights filled 100 of its 307 nights.
Median lead time is 23 days at Bayview and 30 at Manhattan Ave, against 14 at Alma Ave and 14 at the Sora home. The market's median stay is 3 nights, so a 3-night minimum cuts off the guests who book 1 or 2. The fix is a 2-night minimum on all five, with a longer stay required only on holiday weeks and relaxed as the window closes if a gap is still open.
This is the preview, not the audit. The listing-quality audit Pacer runs on signing covers headlines, copy, photo order and captions on every listing, with before and after on each.
Sources: staywithlumina.com property pages (Guesty-fed ratings), PriceLabs Bookings Report and Pricing Dashboard, Nov 4 2026. Channel shares are Manhattan Beach stays, Nov 2025 to Oct 2026.
Run the five Manhattan Beach homes the way the Sora home is run, then go past it: the same 27 Los Angeles event dates on all five homes as a higher advertised rate rather than a floor, far-out premiums that open 2027 and the July 2028 Olympics at Sora's $4,649 level today, a booking-window ladder that holds rate and steps the advertised price down only as a night gets close and is still open, and holiday overrides set now, while the 5-bedroom market is already 83 to 95% booked for Thanksgiving.
Same-store Adj. RevPAR $45 to $72 (+59%) in 30 months.
Same-store Adj. RevPAR $88 to $128 (+46%) in 21 months.
A signed contract, PriceLabs and Guesty access, Key Data connection (set up by Pacer), and a 45-minute kickoff.
A dedicated revenue manager and revenue director, the full listing and revenue-strategy audit, Pacer building and running the event-date rates, far-out rates and booking-window ladder on every home, biweekly reviews during ramp-up, and the Pacer Portal with Key Data. Per the Oct 21 proposal: $50 per unit per month under 50 units, $40 per unit onboarding, or 1.60% of monthly rent under 25 units; 10% off at 6 months, 15% off at 12 months. Month to month, no lock-in.
If you want to get going, reply and we will send the agreement. jon@pacerrev.com · 208-809-0843