Your Manhattan Beach homes out-earned the Sora home from June to October: Bayview ran $2,077 ADR at 87.6% occupancy against Sora's $1,689 at 77.5%. From September on it flips. Sora holds $1,740 while Bayview drops to $1,534, December on the books reads $3,048 vs $2,145, and Thanksgiving week is 52.5% booked against a 5-bedroom market already 83 to 95% full. The difference is settings, not demand.
Lumina gave Pacer expert access to its PriceLabs account on November 4, 2026, and shared the bookings report for the Manhattan Beach home run under the Sora account. We read every reservation since April 2024, the PriceLabs settings on each Manhattan Beach listing, the Sora listing's settings and calendar, and PriceLabs' 5-bedroom Manhattan Beach comp set of 25 homes. Manhattan Beach is 73.1% of trailing-year rent, so that is where this audit looks hardest.
PriceLabs read, Sora comparison, market comp set. This report.
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Guesty and Key Data access, full listing audit, event calendar, forward strategy
Summer 2026 was a rate story market-wide: the World Cup window lifted 5-bedroom ADR to $1,876 in June and $1,633 in July against $1,122 and $1,201 the year before. That tide is gone. The market's November book is behind last year's pace and December sits at 36% booked, so the next six months are about holding rate on the nights that are already in demand (Thanksgiving, Christmas, the LA event calendar) rather than riding a wave.
Market = PriceLabs comp set "5BR Manhattan Beach California", 25 Airbnb listings, read through the Sora listing's Neighborhood Data on Nov 4, 2026. Market monthly history: Nov 2024 to Oct 2026.
Available nights grew 46.5% as the active roster went from 7.9 to 11.6 listings, so revenue growth is mostly inventory and RevPAR is the honest read. Year to date through Nov 4: RevPAR $662 vs $557 (+18.9%), occupancy 73.3% vs 77.7% (-4.4 pts).
| Manhattan Beach listing | Nights | Rent | ADR | ADR vs LY | Occupancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayview (5 BR) | 307 | $544K | $1,773 | +27.6% | 84% |
| Manhattan Ave (4 BR) | 301 | $461K | $1,533 | +56.3% | 82% |
| Alma Ave (5 BR) | 305 | $461K | $1,512 | live Sep 2025 | 84% |
| Homer (3 BR) | 298 | $294K | $987 | +17.5% | 82% |
| Moonstone St (2 BR) | 263 | $176K | $668 | live Mar 2025 | 72% |
All-listings view, not same-store: the roster grew from 10 to 15 active listings over the year. Source: PriceLabs Portfolio Analytics and Bookings Report, Guesty adjusted rental income, stay dates Nov 2025 to Oct 2026.
| Window | Bayview (5 BR) | Alma Ave (5 BR) | Sora home (5 BR) | Market 5 BR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun to Oct 2026 ADR | $2,077 | $1,905 | $1,689 | $1,446 |
| Jun to Oct 2026 occupancy | 87.6% | 84.3% | 77.5% | 77.4% |
| Sep to Oct 2026 ADR | $1,534 | $1,351 | $1,740 | $1,193 |
| November 2026 on the books | 16 nights at $1,825 | 23 nights at $1,508 | 23 nights at $2,179 | 48% booked |
| December 2026 on the books | 17 nights at $2,145 | 19 nights at $1,783 | 8 nights at $3,048 | 36% booked |
| Booked beyond March 2027 | 6 nights | 0 nights | 21 nights incl. 15 for July 2028 |
Same market, same bedroom count, same PriceLabs base price within 5% ($2,379 vs $2,500) and the same $900 floor. The Sora home does not have better demand; it is set up to hold rate when demand thins. Its partner runs a 27-event floor calendar ($2,900 to $4,000 per night on LA event dates), an aggressive occupancy ladder, PriceLabs' far-out premium, a 2-night minimum, 10 hand-placed date overrides and $5,995 fixed prices on Thanksgiving and Christmas. Alma Ave already has the event calendar. Nothing else on your side does.
Sources: PriceLabs Bookings Report (Lumina, booked Apr 2024 to Nov 4 2026, stay-night allocated), Sora Bookings Report CSV (Jon's download, Nov 4 2026), PriceLabs Neighborhood Data. Sora listing live since Jun 12, 2026. Market Sep to Oct ADR is the mean of the two monthly values ($1,152, $1,234).
| Window, 5 Manhattan Beach homes | Booked now | ADR now | Final LY | ADR LY | Sora home |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving, Nov 22 to 29 (40 nights) | 21 nights (52.5%) | $2,127 | 26 nights (65%) | $1,727 | 8 of 8 nights at $2,754 |
| Christmas, Dec 20 to Jan 2 (70 nights) | 47 nights (67.1%) | $2,027 | 62 nights (88.6%) | $1,433 | 3 nights at $5,105 |
The 5-bedroom market is already 83 to 95% booked for Nov 24 to 27. Rate is up on the nights you have sold, which is right. The gap is the 19 Thanksgiving nights and 23 Christmas nights still open across the five homes, and the fact that no floor or override is protecting them while the Sora home sits at $5,995 fixed. Setting holiday floors this week is the single fastest fix in this audit.
Lumina occupancy is portfolio-wide (PriceLabs stay-date view); the holiday rows are the five live Manhattan Beach homes from the Bookings Report. Market from PriceLabs Neighborhood Data, 25-listing 5 BR comp set, Nov 4 2026.
A $1,790 minimum weekend price on Alma Ave and Bayview, the same floor the Sora home uses.
Alma Ave already carries the 27-event floor calendar; it is the template for the other four.
Base prices on the 5-bedroom homes ($2,379) sit within 5% of the Sora base ($2,500).
No weekly or monthly discounts leaking rate into long stays, on any Manhattan Beach listing or on the Sora home.
Weekend pricing is working. Stays entirely on Friday and Saturday nights earned $1,376 vs $711 for stays entirely Monday to Thursday, a 94% weekend premium, and weekend occupancy runs 76% against 60% midweek. The structure is sound; what is missing is the layer that decides what to do when a night is still open 10 days out, or when an event is 10 months out.
Weekend premium: Manhattan Beach short stays under 7 nights, check-in Nov 2025 to Oct 2026, PriceLabs Bookings Report. Day-of-week occupancy: PriceLabs stay-date trends, 2026 year to date, all listings.
| PriceLabs setting | Lumina, 5 Manhattan Beach listings | Sora home |
|---|---|---|
| Event-floor calendar (custom seasonal profile) | 1 of 5 (Alma Ave, 27 seasons) | On, 27 seasons, $2,900 to $4,000 |
| Occupancy-based adjustment | 0 of 5 (group default, 0.85 floor inside 15 days) | On, aggressive (0.70 floor inside 15 days) |
| Far-out premium | 0 of 5 | On, PriceLabs recommended |
| Last-minute logic | 0 of 5 | On, PriceLabs recommended |
| Minimum weekend price | 2 of 5 at $1,790 | $1,790 |
| Minimum stay | 3 nights (Bayview, Manhattan Ave), 2 (Alma Ave, Homer) | 2 nights |
| Hand-placed date overrides | PriceLabs flags "review min-stay" on Bayview and Alma Ave | 10, incl. $5,995 on Thanksgiving and Christmas |
| Maximum price | Not set on any listing | Not set |
Manhattan Beach short stays, trailing year: nights booked 0 to 1 day out realized $596 vs $1,031 at 14 to 30 days (42.2% lower), and 35.3% of stays book inside a week. Without an occupancy ladder, open nights fall to the floor on their own.
Manhattan Beach has 41 nights booked for January to March 2027 and 7 for summer 2027. The Sora home holds 15 nights for July 2028 at $4,649 ($69,728), booked in August 2026. The Olympics are not on your calendar at all.
| Listing | Min stay | Short stays, trailing year | 1 to 2 night stays | Median lead time | Short-stay ADR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayview (5 BR) | 3 nights | 65 | 25 | 23 days | $1,817 |
| Manhattan Ave (4 BR) | 3 nights | 66 | 24 | 30 days | $1,543 |
| Alma Ave (5 BR) | 2 nights | 93 | 38 | 14 days | $1,514 |
| Homer (3 BR) | 2 nights | 85 | 42 | 12 days | $988 |
| Moonstone St (2 BR) | 2 nights | 71 | 22 | 21 days | $670 |
| Sora home (5 BR), Jun to Nov 2026 | 2 nights | 40 | 6 | 14 days | $2,151 |
Alma Ave and Bayview are both 5-bedroom homes in the same PriceLabs group at the same $2,379 base. Alma Ave, at a 2-night minimum, took 93 short stays; Bayview, at 3, took 65. That is 28 more bookings (43% more) from one setting. Bayview's year only held because 2 stays of 28+ nights filled 100 of its 307 nights.
Median lead time is 23 days at Bayview and 30 at Manhattan Ave, against 14 at Alma Ave and 14 at the Sora home. The market's median stay is 3 nights, so a 3-night floor cuts off the guests who book 1 or 2. The fix is a 2-night floor with weekend and holiday exceptions, not a blanket rule.
This is the preview, not the audit. The listing-quality audit Pacer runs on signing covers headlines, copy, photo order and captions on every listing, with before and after on each.
Sources: staywithlumina.com property pages (Guesty-fed ratings), PriceLabs Bookings Report and Pricing Dashboard, Nov 4 2026. Channel shares are Manhattan Beach stays, Nov 2025 to Oct 2026.
Run the five Manhattan Beach homes the way the Sora home is run, then go past it: event floors on all five, an occupancy ladder that holds rate until the last two weeks, far-out premiums that open 2027 and the July 2028 Olympics at Sora's $4,649 level today, and holiday overrides set now, while the 5-bedroom market is already 83 to 95% booked for Thanksgiving.
Same-store Adj. RevPAR $45 to $72 (+59%) in 30 months.
Same-store Adj. RevPAR $88 to $128 (+46%) in 21 months.
PriceLabs and Guesty access, Key Data connection (set up by Pacer), a 45-minute kickoff, and a yes or no on each recommendation.
A dedicated revenue manager and revenue director, the full listing and revenue-strategy audit, the event calendar and forward strategy on every home, biweekly reviews during ramp-up, and the Pacer portal with Key Data. Per the Oct 21 proposal: $50 per unit per month under 50 units, $40 per unit onboarding, or 1.60% of monthly rent under 25 units; 10% off at 6 months, 15% off at 12 months. Month to month, no lock-in.
If you want to get going, reply and we will send the agreement. jon@pacerrev.com · 208-809-0843